The Future of the Republican Party
The past eight months have been filled with speculation about the direction that the Republican party is headed. If you listened to the mainstream media, you would think that the Republican party is teetering on the edge of extinction. If you listened to Democrats, you would think that the Republican party is the party of Nazis and KKK members. But if you listen to me, you will know that the Republican party is primed to lead the country for the foreseeable future. After losing an election cycle on the national level it is good for a party to take a step back an examine where they go from there. But if you are not a Republican you don’t get to choose the direction the party is going to take. Republicans will help decide the direction the Republican party will take. If Republicans start taking their cues from the mainstream media and Democrats, then we are on the wrong path. I am confident that the Republican party is not lost somewhere in the woods but are on a path to success. The Republican party is poised to win the 2022 election cycle and complete a clean sweep of the White House, Senate, and House in 2024.
It was not too long ago that the Democrats were getting the same prognosis from the mainstream media and the Republicans. The far left and the moderates could not agree on a platform to run on. There were many on the far left that would not vote for Hillary Clinton and helped to usher President Trump into office. After the showing that they put forth in 2016, there was no way they could put together a winning coalition in 2018 and 2020. That is, until they did. Democrats in 2018 and 2020 had to overcome a sizeable House majority and a 53-47 Senate majority to defeat Republicans. All Republicans have to overcome one of the smallest House majorities in almost a century and a 50-50 Senate. The House is almost guaranteed to be a Republican majority in 2022. The party that has the White House losses an average of 30 House seats in midterm elections (Murse, 2020). The Senate may take a few years to regain firm control. In 2022, there are 34 Senate seats that will be up for election (Ballotpedia, 2021). Of those seats, 19 are currently held by Republicans and 15 are held by Democrats. 18 are in states President Trump carried twice, 4 are in states that President Trump carried once, and 12 are in states that President Trump never carried. It looks like there will be 10 races that will be considered toss-ups. Of those toss-up races 6 are held by Republicans and 4 are held by Democrats. Republicans and Democrats will both be defending 2 Senate seats in states Trump carried once. So, in 2022 it will be battle for Republicans to come out even in terms of Senate seats. Best scenario is that Republicans walk away with a 54-46 majority and the worst scenario is that Republicans walk away with a 44-56 minority. I think we see another 50-50 Senate. In 2024, 33 Senate seats will be up (Ballotpedia, 2020). Of those seats, 23 are currently held by Democrates (Including 2 Independents that caucus with Democrats) and 10 are held by Republicans. 13 are states President Trump carried twice, 4 are in states President Trump carried once, and 16 are in states that President Trump never carried. There will be around 13 toss-up races. Of those, 11 are held by Democrats and 2 are held by Republicans. Republicans will not have a seat up in a state that Trump lost. Democrats will have 3 seats up in states where President Trump won twice and 4 seats up where President Trump won once. If Republicans can pull even in the Senate in 2022, 2024 looks to be a banner year for Republicans. So, based on that Republicans will be a major player in Congress during the Biden administration.
We also need to stop with the idea that President Trump did not grow the Republican party. I don’t know if those people will come out when he’s not on the ballot, but when it came to him being on the top of the ticket his supporters came out in droves. The problem was his divisiveness. He was both the most popular and most unpopular President in American history. In 2020, the popular vote ended up being 81 million for President Biden and 74 million for President Trump (Britannica, 2021). Prior to this election, the highest vote getter was President Obama with 69 million votes and his opponent Senator John McCain only received 59 million votes (Britannica, 2021). The only issue with President Trump is he made sure the other party got out and voted for their candidate. It makes it better when you realize that these voters were not voting for anything. These are voters that got out for the sole reason to vote against President Trump. When he is not on the ballot these voters will not get out. Parties don’t tend to keep voters who get out to vote against a certain candidate. It helps the President Biden is governing like he got this huge mandate from Americans to be the most far-left president in American history. I believe that Republicans, unlike Democrats, can keep those 74 million votes that voted for President Trump while at the same time bringing back those Republicans who were put off by President Trump. The future of the party will be with individuals who are like President Trump. I’m not talking about his personal life or his personality, but the way he will fight the battles that Republicans need to fight. Someone that will take the blows from the media to help shield Republicans in Congress who are on the front line of pushing a conservative agenda. It’s not all about the person though. These new Republicans need to stop putting the person above the party. President Trump gave us a blueprint to successful politics, but we need even more successful policy to go with that. As former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan said in a speech a couple of weeks ago, the Republican party needs to focus on principles rather than individuals (Jackson, 2021). But, I will have more on that later.
There is a narrative that Republicans are going to lose more and more with the changing demographics. The United States will soon be a majority minority country. We can’t ignore the fact the Republicans are making inroads in every single minority community. The only reason President Trump lost in 2020 was because of the decrease of his share of votes from the White population. In 2008, Democrats won in the share of the Black vote 95-4, the Hispanic vote 67-31, the Asian vote 62-35, and of other ethnicities 66-32 (Cornell, 2008). The Republicans won in the share of the White vote 55-43 (Cornell, 2008). In 2012, Democrats won in the share of the Black vote 93-6, the Hispanic vote 71-27, and the Asian vote 73-26 (Statista, 2012). The Republicans won in the share of the White vote 59-39. (Statista, 2012). In 2016, Democrats won in the share of the Black vote 88-8, the Hispanic vote 65-29, the Asian vote 65-29, and of other ethnicities 56-37 (Statista, 2016). The Republicans won in the share of the White vote 58-37. (Statista, 2016). Finally in 2020, Democrats won in the share of the Black vote 87-12, the Hispanic vote 66-32, the Asian vote 63-31, and of other ethnicities 58-40 (Statista, 2020). The Republicans won in the share of the White vote 57-42 (Statista, 2020). I always thought it was weird to call President Trump a racist. He received the highest percentage of the Black vote in the modern era. Additionally, he didn’t even keep pace with Senator Mitt Romney in terms of the White vote. I guess the media will push the narrative they want to push though. If the Republicans can continue their gains in the Black community and increase their share of the vote to 15% and make inroads in the Hispanic community to the tune of 2-3% over the next 4 years you will see a Republican in the White House with a landslide win. President Trump did better than Senator McCain and Romney in almost every minority subset. The Republican party will continue to grow in these communities as the party shifts its message.
The issue that needs to be addressed the most is the message that this revamped Republican party will run on. President Trump was able to take complex issues and turn them into a phrase. His immigration policy was summed up in “build the wall.” His trade and foreign policy were summed up in “America first.” If you are explaining convoluted polices on the campaign trail then you are not going to win. But, to come up with these slogans the Republican party must have a platform of strong policy proposals. The future of Republican policy is outlined in a memo that the chairman of the Republican Study Committee, Congressman Jim Banks (R-Indiana), sent to the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Olson, 2021). The memo states that the Republican party needs to focus on immigration, trade, anti-wokeness, main street vs. wall street, and a big tech crackdown (Olson, 2021). Congressman Banks correctly remarks that the Republican party is now the party of the working class and small business (Olson, 2021). The issues that Congressmen Banks outline are the issues that matter to the working-class. These are the issues that, as Congressman Banks put it, Democrats have abandoned for multinational corporations and woke elitists (Olson, 2021).
The working-class wants strong illegal immigration policies and smart legal immigration policies. Most Americans do not want undocumented immigrants to come to America and live off government welfare. However, Americans will be happy to accept those immigrants that will benefit the American economy. We are the land of opportunity and if you are going to benefit America then you should be here. Working-class Americans have noticed jobs being shipped overseas for decades. They have seen other countries grow their manufacturing base while America’s manufacturing base weakens. America allows other countries to beat us in the world market. If Republicans are not running on competitive international trade then they are on the wrong track. Working-class Americas don’t care about culture battles. They care about putting food on the table and taking care of their families. Democrats on the other hand want to tell parents how to raise their children and teach their children that they are defined by their race and gender. While Democrats are focused on letting children take hormone blockers and get sex changes, Republicans need to push back on this nonsense and focus on issues that matter to the American worker. Republicans need to be for main street and not wall street. Republicans acknowledge that big business and wall street are important factors in the American economy. But, as we have seen during the Covid-19 pandemic main street is the engine of America. More regulations and higher taxes will hurt main street a lot more than they will hurt wall street. There’s an argument to be made that it would actually help wall street and big business to add more regulations and to raise taxes. Instead of adding regulations and raising taxes like the Democrats want to do, Republicans need to focus on making big business play by the same rules as small business. Finally, workers don’t want to be controlled by their big tech overlords. They want to be able to communicate freely without being censored and be able to take in the information they want without it being restricted. I will add that in addition to Congressman Banks’ memo, Republicans also need detailed proposals on energy and healthcare. Couple that with typical Republican policy and the party can again be the party of ideas.
The Republican party is not at its end. Just because President Biden is in the White House doesn’t mean the 74 million people that voted for President Trump disappeared. Having Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shumer doesn’t mean they have 100% support for their legislation. The Republican party needs to take what it learned from President Trump and add a detailed platform of policies that matter to working-class Americans. This will ensure the success of the Republican party in the years to come.
Sources
Ballotpedia. (2020, Jul. 9). United States Senate elections, 2024. Retrieved from https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2024
Ballotpedia. (2021, Feb.). United States Senate elections, 2022. Retrieved from https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2022
Britannica. (2017, Feb. 3). United States Presidential Election Results. Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-Presidential-Election-Results-1788863
Cornell University, Roper Center. (2008). How Groups Voted in 2008. Retrieved from https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2008
Jackson, David. (2021, May 27). Paul Ryan says Republicans need to focus on ‘principles’ and not individuals as Trump remains a force in the party. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2021/05/27/donald-trump-and-gop-reagan-group-weighs-republican-party-future/5239025001/
Murse, Tom. (2020, Feb. 4). Why the President’s Party Loses Seats in Midterm Elections. Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com/historical-midterm-election-results-4087704
Olson, Tyler. (2021, Mar. 31). GOP memo says party must embrace blue-collar support, condemn ‘minuscule minority’ who oppose new direction. Retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-memo-embrace-blue-collar-support-condemn-minuscule-minority
Statista. (2012, Nov. 7). Exit polls of the 2012 presidential elections in the United States on November 6, 2012, percentage of votes by race and ethnicity. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/245878/voter-turnout-of-the-exit-polls-of-the-2012-elections-by-ethnicity/
Statista. (2016, Nov. 9). Exit polls of the 2016 presidential elections in the United States on November 9, 2016, percentage of votes by race. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/631236/voter-turnout-of-the-exit-polls-of-the-2016-elections-by-race/
Statista. (2020, Nov. 9). Exit polls of the 2020 Presidential Election in the United States on November 3, 2020, share of votes by ethnicity. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1184425/presidential-election-exit-polls-share-votes-ethnicity-us/
Politics with Kegan Prentice 