Impeached! (Maybe?)

Articles of impeachment have finally passed in the House of Representatives (Maybe?). On December 18th President Trump was impeached in the House of Representatives. The House passed two Articles of impeachment, Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress, on a near party line vote. Throughout the process, I have noticed two major arguments that the Republicans don’t seem to be making. The first, an argument against the actual impeachment of President Trump. The second, an argument more geared toward the process of impeachment. The first argument that has been rarely touched on, the aid to Ukraine and the timeline of when it was legally supposed to be released. The second argument that the Republicans have not been able to counter, the idea that the Democrats can’t wait to impeach because Trump is actively attracting foreign interference in the 2020 elections. Democrats argue that impeachment is urgent and can’t wait. There are strong arguments that Republicans can make on both counts.

This whole impeachment mess started with a whistle-blower report about a phone call between President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on July 25th. The whistle-blower report alleged that President Trump held back vital military aid from Ukraine which was approved by Congress. The report alleged President Trump wanted Ukraine to open an investigation into Hunter Biden. This was seen as a politically motivated move to try to dig up dirt on his primary political challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden. The Democrats and the whistle-blower that started the impeachment investigation argue that President Trump is using the office of the President for political gain. They allege that since President Trump held back vital military aid that it would pressure Ukraine into opening the politically motivated investigation that he wanted into the Biden’s. This argument against President Trump seems to fall apart when you take into account that the vital military aid had to be legally released by September 30th or the money that was allocated by Congress would have been lost. The vital military aid needed to start moving through the government system by mid-September because there is a requirement for a two-week notification to Congress (Wadhams and Mohsin 2019). The investigation into President Trump started on September 9th and the vital military aid was released on September 11th. The Democrat argument depends on the assumption that President Trump was not going to release the vital military aid before September 30th and that the vital military aid that was allocated would be lost. If you take into account the legal guidelines of the aid it makes sense as to why the aid was released around the same time as the impeachment investigation. There also needs to be the assumption that Ukrainian officials did not know that the vital military aid needed to be legally released by September 30th. If you assume these two “facts” it is easy to see how Democrats can go down the slippery slope that they have gone down. If you don’t make these assumptions, then it can be inferred that Ukraine would not have been pressured into investigating the Biden’s. Ukraine would have known that they would receive the vital military aid no matter what and they would have taken the request from President Trump to investigate the Biden’s as an ask and not something they had to do.

The second argument that the Republicans have not made a strong counter on, the idea that Democrats believe that the impeachment of President Trump can’t wait. This is what House Democrats argued when they could not wait for subpoenas of prominent administration officials to make it through the court system. They are now willing to pressure Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to subpoena those same administration officials that they were not willing to wait on when they were investigating President Trump in the House. Speaker Pelosi is now willing to hold the Articles of Impeachment until the Senate agrees to the trial that the Democrats want to have (Sheth and Haltiwanger 2019). The Senate Democrats want the same rights that should have been afforded to Republicans in the House. If impeachment and removal was really that much of a priority this would not even be on the table. There has been nothing substantial that has changed in the weeks since impeachment has passed the House of Representatives. The argument that impeachment and removal is urgent seems to fall flat. The other question that needs to be asked of Democrats: if impeachment and removal is this pressing issue that needs to addressed then why go on a two-week break? If Democrats were this serious about impeachment and removal they would have pressed Republicans to stay in Washington over break and go through the Senate trial.

Republicans of the House of Representatives and Senate have a strong argument against both the impeachment and removal of President Trump. The Republican argument can be bolstered if they focus on the legal issues surrounding the vital military aid and the hypocritical idea that the Democrats have that impeachment and removal is urgent. Impeachment may be over, but there is a long road ahead for the Republicans and President Trump. Strong arguments against impeachment and removal that will help sway public opinion will be a vital tool in the coming weeks.

Sources

Sheth, Sonam; Haltiwanger, John. Democrats are playing hardball on impeachment, and it’s depriving Trump of the one thing he wants most for his reelection. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-withhold-impeachment-articles-senate-threatens-trump-reelection-2019-12. Accessed 1 January 2020.

Wadhams, Nick; Mohsin, Saleha. State Department Freed Ukraine Money Before Trump Says He Did. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-09/state-department-freed-ukraine-money-before-trump-says-he-did. Accessed 1 January 2020.