With the Iowa caucus just a few weeks away, now is a good time to take a quick preview of the Democrat primary. The field is beginning to shrink as those candidates that had no chance are dropping out. Examining the primary field as it stands right now, I see five candidates that have a possibility of securing the Democrat nomination: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg. These candidates do not have an equal chance of securing the nomination. I am just stating, from my perspective, they each have a chance if the primary process goes their way.
Vice President Joe Biden has been the front runner the entire race thus far. He may not know what state he is in on any given day, but he sure knows that he is at the top of most national polls (Vankin 2020) . It gets interesting for Vice President Biden when you look at the early state polling. There is a very real possibility that the first four primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada are split between three or four candidates. This sets up Super Tuesday, which includes 16 primaries and caucuses, to be the most pivotal in recent memory. Vice President Biden’s best hope to secure the primary nomination would be to dominate on Super Tuesday. This would mean winning at least 12 of the 16 primaries and caucuses. This would be Vice President Biden’s best chance of securing the Democrat nomination outright. The dominating win Vice President Biden could possibly have on Super Tuesday can help to ensure that there is not a contested convention, which is a possibility I will touch on when talking about two different Democratic candidates.
Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren are twins when it comes to their political beliefs. The only difference is Senator Warren made the grave mistake of not answering a simple yes or now question for months. Time and time again she was asked whether or not she would raise taxes on the middle class. Time and time again all she could say was that costs would go down for those in the middle class. The plans that she put forth would obviously raise the taxes of all Americans. Senator Warren could not come to grips with that simple fact. Senator Sanders, on the other hand, had no problem with telling you that your taxes will go up. If you plan to take our money at least be honest about it (Breuninger 2019). This is the exact reason why Senator Sanders will get the far-left vote in the 2020 Democrat primary. He will win at least one of the first four early states. The pivotal question is: when will Senator Warren decide to drop out of the race? If Senator Warren drops out before Super Tuesday that should give Senator Sanders enough support to overcome any challenger and win the nomination outright. If Senator Warren does not drop out by Super Tuesday then there is no scenario in my mind that Vice President Biden is not the Democrat nominee. The flip side is also true. The way Senator Warren can win the nomination is if Senator Sanders drops out. That is not probable considering he is likely to capture an early primary state. The thing to remember when analyzing Senator Sanders and Senator Warren is that if one of these candidates drops out before Super Tuesday the other will win the Democrat nomination.
Pete Buttigieg, the former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has quickly made a name for himself on the national stage. Mayor Buttigieg, or Mayor Pete as he is most commonly referred, is the first prominent LGBT candidate for President of the United States. I am from Indiana, and within the Indiana Republican Party there has been a sense that Mayor Pete was going to run for President for going on three-years. The man that lost by 30 points in a Statewide race to a failed Senate candidate is now a month away from potentially winning the first primary state of Iowa (Webb 2019). This will not be enough to push him to the nomination. The win in Iowa could give him the momentum to get to the nomination in a different way. Mayor Pete will win the Democrat nomination for President by being the spoiler. He needs to make sure that he wins enough states and that enough states are split between the other candidates to ensure that there is a contested convention. At that convention the Democrats will be looking for a moderate that can beat President Trump. I may not believe that Mayor Pete can beat President Trump, but in the current field he has the best chance. It helps that he is a member of the LGBT community. There is also a significant contrast when looking at the top five candidates in terms of age. Mayor Pete is under 40 and the other four are over 70 years young. If there is a contested convention, Mayor Pete may be the one that survives.
I have touched on the idea of a contested convention. This is something that has not happened since 1952, but there are signs it may happen in this primary. A contested convention is when no candidate running in the primary is able to capture the delegates needed. This delegates are awarded based on how candidates perform in the primary and caucuses throughout the country. The fact that there are multiple people who can capture multiple states will help to ensure that no one candidate can get the 1,919 delegates needed to secure the Democrat nomination. This is the first year that there will not be “super-delegates” in the first round of voting at the Democrat convention. These are unbounded delegates that have their position by virtue of their elected office. If these is a contested convention these 758 “super-delegates” will be the “King Makers”. The bar to secure the nomination on a second vote at the convention will be 2,298 (Faucheux 2019). This is the way I see Mayor Pete winning along with the next candidate that I will discuss.
Finally, we have a late entrance into the race, former New York Mayor, Michael Bloomberg. Mayor Bloomberg has had the interesting strategy of skipping the first four early primary states and hedging all of his bets on Super Tuesday. Just like Mayor Pete the best chance for Mayor Bloomberg to win is making sure there is a contested convention. Mayor Bloomberg has a different appeal than Mayor Pete has. He can run on the same platform that President Trump ran on. The idea that he is a successful businessman that can run the country like a business. He can run the same campaign on the Democrat platform. The other plus side is the fact that he is worth about $54 billion and has money to outspend President Trump (Foussianes 2019).
In the end I have no idea what is going to happen throughout this process. Looking at the field and how polls look, these are some of the likely outcomes. The one that is most likely to happen in my mind is Vice President Biden winning the Democrat nomination outright. The one that would be most shocking is either Senator Warren or Biden dropping out before Super Tuesday allowing the other to win the Democrat nomination. The outcome that I would be most excited to see is a contested convention where I believe Pete Buttigieg would win the nomination.
I will be looking back to this post after the primary process is over to see how accurate I was in my analysis. Until that time watch the debates, educate yourself, and follow the primaries.
Sources
Breuninger, Kevin. (2019, Oct 15). Elizabeth Warren dodges questions on middle-class tax hikes under ‘Medicare for All.’ Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/elizabeth-warren-takes-heat-for-dodging-question-on-medicare-for-all-taxes.html
Faucheux, Ron. (2019, Dec 29). Why a Contested Democratic Convention Is Possible. Retrieved from https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/12/27/why_a_contested_democratic_convention_is_possible_142033.html
Foussianes, Chloe. (2019, Nov 26). Michael Bloomberg’s Net Worth Ranks Him Among the World’s Top Billionaires. Retrieved from https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/money-and-power/a25781489/michael-bloomberg-net-worth/
Klar, Rebecca. (2020, Jan 2). Bloomberg decides to skip Nevada caucuses. Retrieved from https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476537-bloomberg-fails-to-file-for-nevada-caucuses
Montanaro, Domenico. (2019, Oct 4). Progressives Sanders And Warren Lead Democrats In Fundraising, Biden Lags. Retreived from https://www.npr.org/2019/10/04/767210633/progressives-sanders-and-warren-lead-democrats-in-fundraising-biden-lags
Timm, Jane. (2019, Dec 17). Democratic debate gets green light after labor dispute is settled. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/democratic-debate-gets-green-light-after-labor-dispute-settled-n1103156
Vankin, Jonathan. (2020, Jan 4). Despite Media Reports Of Bernie Sanders ‘Surge,’ New Poll Shows Joe Biden Holding Wide, 10 Point National Lead. Retrieved from https://www.inquisitr.com/5821030/bernie-sanders-new-poll-joe-biden-lead/
Webb, John. (2019, Apr 3). Pete Buttigieg lost his first race to a former Vanderburgh County commissioner. Retrieved from https://www.courierpress.com/story/opinion/columnists/jon-webb/2019/04/03/pete-buttigieg-got-trounced-his-first-indiana-campaign/3341473002/
Politics with Kegan Prentice 